Talk:Valyrian Glyphs/@comment-74.12.160.42-20160517180826
Valyrian Glyphs farming strategy (warning: extremely long post - for tl;dr, see the "final results" at the end) Those of you attempting high-level crafting will soon find yourselves in dire need of incredible amounts of those mystic and ancient runes (especially in dragon crafting). Sure, you will acquire a few through quest and tales rewards, but not nearly enough - and since they don't persist through reincarnation, you can't stockpile them that way. Your only reliable source of glyphs will be through adventuring - both trough direct rewards and bonus rolls for every 10 000 sworn sword XP gained. So far, three adventures can yield you valyrian glyphs, all with very low drop rates. Lets crunch some numbers here (completion time in minutes and not including any speed bonus; experience bonuses not considered). - Vol. II, Lv 78 (night only) "Quell a smallfolk riot" - drop rate: 1.2 %, 124m to complete, difficulty 253, 166 XP - Vol II, Lv 100 (day only) "Feed starving smallfolks" - drop rate: 1.5%, 176m to complete, difficulty 375, 244 XP - Vol III, Lv 125 (day only) "Bring overdue justice" - drop rate: 1%, 236m to complete, difficulty 500, 322 XP As for bonus rolls (unlockable gold talent - extremely recommended), their drop rates are as follows: - Roll 1: 3 % - Roll 2: 6% All in all, this means that for every 10 000 XP gained (this seems like a lot, but it accumulates quite fast with large parties), you get 9% chance of obtaining a valyrian glyph. Translated in %-per-XP, you gain a value of 0,0009% chance of valyrian glyph per XP gained (meaning, statistically, that you need 111 111 XP to reach the theoretical 100 % chance of a drop – ergo 11-12 rolls (counting both levels) Let's now include that value in the adventure drop rates - Vol. II, Lv 78 "Quell a smallfolk riot" :166 XP x 0,0009% = +0,15% -> drop rate = 1,35% - Vol II, Lv 100 "Feed starving smallfolks": 244 XP x 0,0009% = +0,22% -> drop rate = 1,77% - Vol III, Lv 125 "Bring overdue justice" 322 XP x = +0,29 % -> drop rate = 1,29% Next, we must consider the difficulty rating of the adventures. This bit is tricky, as it will depend on your character stats and bonuses as well as you sworn sword stats and bonuses. Since it also varies for every sworn sword depending on their gear, we will have to consider global averages. Given the relatively high levels at which valyrian glyphs farming starts to become an issue, we will propose 3 mean values for statistical scenarios: 1000, 1500 and 2000. As an indicator, consider that with all buildings completed (w/o gold upgrades), a well-equipped player with adequately equipped and levelled sworn swords (i.e.: mean level of 50 or more) will generally net in the 1500 mean value. Lower level players should consider referring to the 1000 mean value, and high-end players to the 2000 one. The chances of successful completion of an adventure is calculated by dividing the stats of the attacking sworn sword by the stats of the adventure's difficulty level + the sword's stats. For example, a sworn sword with a base stat of 500 in a 500 difficulty adventure will have 50 % chance of success (500 / (500+500) = 500 / 1000 = 50%). A sworn sword with 1000 points will have 66% chance of success ( 1000 / (500+1000) = 1000 / 1500 = 66%), a sworn sword with 1500 points will have a 75% chance of success ( 1500 / (1500+500) = 1500 / 2000 = 75%), etc... It's basically a prorata calculation. In the following calculations, we'll factor the victory chances for three possible mean values: (A: 1000, B: 15000, and C: 2000) and apply the results to the drop percentages – this is to take into consideration the possibility of failing an adventure, thus getting nothing out of it, therefore lowering the drop chance. - Vol. II, Lv 78 "Quell a smallfolk riot": difficulty 253. Chances of success: A= 80%; B= 86%; C= 89% Resulting adjusted drop rates (from base 1,35%): A=1,08%; B=1,16%; C=1,20% - Vol II, Lv 100 "Feed starving smallfolks": difficulty 375 Chances of success: A=73%; B= 80%; C= 84% Resulting adjusted drop rates (from base 1,77%): A=1,29%; B=1,42%; C=1,49% - Vol III, Lv 125 "Bring overdue justice" difficulty 500 Chances of success: A=66%; B=75%; C= 80% Resulting adjusted drop rates (from base 1,29%): A=0,85%; B=0,97%; C=1,03 % Now, if you're only going to send your sworn swords on a single adventure and will not give them instructions for a long period of time afterwards, you can stop your calculations here and take those numbers as final. Also, while those numbers may seem completely insignificant, they are for a single sworn sword, for a single run; if you send 50 sworn swords on adventure runs 5 times per day, you can multiply those numbers by 250, thus transforming, for example, a measly 1,49% chance into 372,5%, amounting to 3-4 drops. Next, if you intend to farm by going into “serial adventure” mode (i.e.: sending your swords in one adventure after the other), then the completion time of an adventure matters. If you can make twice as many attempts of one type of adventure compared to another, longer, one, you will have twice as many drops, ergo twice the absolute chance to obtain a valaryan glyph at the end of the day, even if the rates remain the same. That said, let's factor in the completion time (in minutes) to calculate the % chance of drop per minute's worth of adventuring (“speed ups” not considered, as they are impractical on very large scales). - Vol. II, Lv 78 "Quell a smallfolk riot": 124m A= 0,0087 % per minute; B=0,0094 % per minute; C= 0,0097 % per minute - Vol II, Lv 100 "Feed starving smallfolks": 176m A=0,0073 % per minute; B=0,0081 % per minute; C= 0,0085% per minute - Vol III, Lv 125 "Bring overdue justice": 236m A=0,0036 % per minute; B=0,0041 % per minute C=0,0043 % per minute And there we have it. FINAL RESULT All in all, if you're considering your drop rates for a single adventure run, where time is not an issue (i.e.: last adventure before going to bed), then Vol II, Lv 100 "Feed starving smallfolks" is your best bet. However, if you're considering chain-adventuring, then Vol. II, Lv 78 "Quell a smallfolk riot" is your best option. Keep in mind, though, that we only considered the valyrian glyph drop chances here, not factoring XP for leveling-up purposes (where Vol III, Lv 125 "Bring overdue justice" is more lucrative in pure XP terms), not drop chances for any other items that might interest you (in that respect, Vol III, Lv 125 "Bring overdue justice", can yield all three rare crafting ressources – if you're looking for all three of them at the same time, then triple the numbers above for that adventure, making it the definitive winner). Finally, please also keep in mind that those are statistical calculations, meant to apply to very large numbers on very large scales. You may get incredibly lucky and gain 3 drops in a single run of “Bring overdue justice” - or you may get unlucky and get absolutely no drops even after 10 runs of “Quell a smallfolk riot”. But in the end, those numbers should give you a good idea on how to plan your farming strategy on the long and very long run, with thousands of runs and rolls involved.